Super Economies- America, India, China & The Future of the World : Raghav Bahl(2015)

The title is misleading. With ‘Super Economies’ and ’Future of the World’ written on the cover, one expected a run down on Indian Economy's current status and how India intended to catch up with US and China.

But for Raghav Bahl, India is a de facto SuperEconomy already, with the final push just round the corner with Modi in power.

‘If the US is the stalwart SuperEconomy, Japan and Europe fading SuperEconomies, and China the scrappy challenger, India is the sleeper SuperEconomy. And now, with Narendra Modi’s election as prime minister, it is finally poised to awaken….

….. If he can deliver what he has promised, India’s future as a SuperEconomy is virtually assured’

And that’s that. There is no more discussion on the all important ‘How’ to become a SuperEconomy. 

I have never been able to understand this alacrity to bestow sobriquets of ‘SuperPower’ or SuperEconomy’ on India. With grinding poverty of over 350 million of our citizens, endemic unemployment, crumbling infrastructure et al, why focus on non issues?

Observe what Deng Xiapong said in 1978 when China had over 300 million  people mired in poverty:

‘Observe developments soberly, maintain our position, meet challenges calmly, hide our capabilities and bide our time, remain free of ambition, and never claim leadership”

Fast forward today three decades later, with just 20 million below poverty line and a 10 trillion dollar economy, the Chinese rightly feel the time has come. And the world has no choice but to sit up and notice.

Or observe Fareed Zakaria’s take on the present day state of Britain, the original Superpower:

‘On Monday, the Right Honorable David Cameron, prime minister of Great Britain, gave his first major speech after being reelected to his high office .........Confronting a world of challenges — including Greece’s possible exit from the Euro, a massive migration crisis on Europe’s shores, Ukraine’s perilous state, Russia’s continued intransigence, the advance of the Islamic State and the continuing chaos in the Middle East — Cameron chose to talk about . . . a plan to ensure that hospitals in the United Kingdom will be better staffed on weekends.’

Zakaria laments how parochial Britain has become and how the country  has resigned its position as a World power.

But isn’t it a realistic take by Cameron on the present day state of affairs? Why stretch yourself?

These shrill proclamations about being a Superpower or a SuperEconomy reminds me of a Margaret Thatcher quote:

'Power is like being a lady.... if you have to tell people you are, you aren't.'

The portion of the book which talks of  the ‘Future of the World’ given in the cover, is covered in flat last five pages of the book; And of course the 'future'  is nice and rosy with China playing ball with the benevolent democratic Superpowers of US and India.

Zakaria’s take on the book is most apt:

‘A refreshing, optimistic account of the future’.

It is optimistic alright. 

So the book is not about Economics. Period.So then what is the book about?

Well the book mostly ambles down the  history lane actually.

There are interesting tidbits on the analogies of the rise of US and India. And how as Democratic  powers, we should wield our moral authority, lecture on freedom and rule of law, and generally get China to tow our line.

The author's complete faith in India's 'Moral Superiority' over China, since we are a democracy and they, an Authoritarian regime, is almost Nehruvian in its idealism. Sample a few passages from the book:

As China’s arrogance grew, so too did India’s willingness to

forgo its historic policy of non-alignment and take a stand, much

to the delight of Western leaders ......India’s support was becoming increasingly important in managing China’s explosive rise. The rare-earth outburst helped define India’s evolving role as a global lynchpin—a dependable peacemaker belonging equally to Asia and to the borderless union of liberal democracies.

.......While much of the world drifts towards democracy—

up to 60 per cent of all nations, by Pei's count—China remains

firmly committed to a one-party, authoritarian state, limiting its

pool of potential allies to friendly but isolated socialist states like

Venezuela or Cuba. Even former Cold War allies like Romania

and Albania have turned their backs on China, setting their sights

instead on the West.

.....Democratic Delhi, by contrast, has adopted a much quieter

more ingratiating, and less self-serving approach to diplomacy

allowing it to foster long-term partnerships all over the world.

While China is looking for immediate gratification. India is playing a much longer game. 

....Reserved and respectful it inspires fear in no one, with the possible exception of arch-rival Pakistan. India's great advantage is that, barring certain perceptions in our immediate neighbourhood, it is not seen as a threatening power,....Its power has often been the power of its example. The world recognizes that it needs India to succeed.

Post the collapse of Arab Spring and witnessing the  current chaos reigning in Iraq and Afghanistan, one might conjecture that Democracy is not the 'one size that fits for all' miracle solution.  

Raghav Bahl harbors no such cynicism or doubts whatsoever. He sees India to be on top of the heap soon enough and as good Indians one shouldn't shake his faith.
Read the book for its good vignettes and anecdotes on Indian History.