The Next Hundred Years : George Friedman

George Friedman is a US geopolitical forecaster, and the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures, an online publication that analyzes and forecasts the course of global events.
He was earlier Chairman of Stratfor.

The future predicted by the author is somewhat contrary to conventional wisdom floating around to say the least.

Most surprising is his prediction the collapse of China sometime in the 2020s.
The book was written in 2009. And it's 2018 now. The aspect of any imminent collapse by China in the near future seems slightly farfetched.  The collapse of China as per the author would be on account of the internal divisions caused between the prosperous coastal regions and the hinterland. India too is given a role by the author in precipitating the collapse due to its active support in causing the breakaway of Tibet.

He also predicts that the collusion of the West with hardline Islam/ Al Qaeda to be relegated to a footnote of not much significance, which seems likely.

A return to a cold war with Russia is predicted in the 2030s.

Rise of Poland, Turkey and Japan is predicted by the mid 21st century leading to a high tech world war sometime in 2050s.

Mexico will also be a power to reckon with in the 2080s.

The book is interesting however due to the insight provided into contemporary geopolitics. 

Predicting the future is hard and one shouldn't let the author's flight into realms of fantasy to be taken too seriously.

One aspects which was interesting is his take on the 50 year US presidential cycle -one that "usually begins with a defining presidency and ends in a failed one".

The crises  defined by the struggle between a declining dominant class linked to an established economic model and the emergence of a new class and a new economic model.

The author's theory of Presidential cycles makes him theorize as follows:-

#George Washington Cycle(1776 to 1829; 53 years):
This ended in 1829 with the failed presidency of John Quincy Adams and the rise of Andrew Jackson in which  "Founders give way to Pioneers".
"Andrew Jackson's predecessors had favored a stable currency to protect investors. Jackson championed cheap money to protect debtors, the people who voted for him."

#Andrew Jackson Cycle(48 years): Ended in 1877 with the failed presidency of Ulysses S. Grant  when the "Pioneers give way to Small-town America". 

"Rutherford B. Hayes championed money backed by gold, which limited inflation, raised interest rates, and made investment more attractive."

#Rutherford B. Hayes Cycle(56 years):
Ended in 1933 with the failed presidency of Herbert Hoover when "Small Towns give way to Industrial Cities".

Franklin D Roosevelt, FDR, "championed the industrial urban workers at the expense of the declining small towns and their values."

#FDR Cycle(48 Years):Ended in 1981 with the failed presidency of Jimmy Carter when "Industrial Cites give way to Service Suburbs".

Ronald Reagan maintained "consumption while simultaneously increasing the amount of investment capital." "...reducing taxes in order to stimulate investment." "...which favored the suburban professional and entrepreneurial classes."

So as per the author we are currently in the  Ronald Reagan Cycle, predicted to end in 2028 or 2032 with the failed presidency of---- who knows?

The author also predicts that the US will be actively  wooing immigrants to overcome its labour shortage problems in the 2030s- something which seems to be at odds with the current Trump era policies.

Overall a good read.